The craft beer world can be fickle at times. Trends that seemed sure to grow are suddenly displaced by new, unexpected ones. Even industry veterans find themselves surprised on occasion. Conversely, sometimes they see the change before it turns the corner. This was a topic of conversation during our long interview earlier this year with Garrett Oliver, brewmaster of Brooklyn Brewery. What does he think of recent changes?

“The whole interest in sours doesn’t surprise me at all. In fact, I think it’s going to pick up steam and be even bigger. I think it’s a much more natural way for people to gravitate than towards bitterness. Anyone who doesn’t think sours are going to take off has a big surprise coming. The only thing I can think of that was a complete surprise to me, and which I still don’t understand, is the collapse in the U.S. market of the larger bottle sizes. The 750ml, and the 22ounce in some markets, was the standard bottle for specialty beers. The consumer just decided in these last few years that this bottle, which they had loved for 25+ years, they didn’t like anymore, and it just fell off a cliff. There are very few breweries that outside their own taprooms can still sell that size, where 5 or 6 years ago it was 100% the standard. There’s little to point to the cause except for maybe the rise of cans. I also think it has to do with social media. Rather than get together with three friends and share, people will just get something they can drink all by themselves.”

That’s an interesting observation. Of note, American imports in that format (750ml) have not sold well in Japan. Part of the problem in Japan could be the limited space for such ‘large’ products… Where do you see the next five years going?

“Sours are going to be big. I think barrel-aged beers, whether they shift into draft, bottles or cans, are not going anywhere. They are loved. I think you are going to see a lot more things that are on the border between beer and wine, and beer and sake. You’ll see more brewers going into distilling projects. And cocktail-based stuff.”

If any of these have gained momentum in Japan, its been beers on the border between beer and sake. There have been a handful of hybrids, including one by Konishi Shuzô that won a World Beer Cup gold medal in the experimental beer category. It will be interesting to see where Japan goes with this, and whether it will be on the cutting edge of brewing trends with whatever it creates.